You know the UK snow risk chart on the gfs. How it shows colour spectrum of %chance of snow.
Let's say your area has 10% chance.
My question is, is that 10% chance from today, this moment, all things considered, a "forecast" if you will.
Or is it a 10% chance if that exact chart (pressure etc) came to fruition?
I always assumed it was the later, but then if it was the later, then why the big variability in chance, it would be much more definitive no? I mean, they "know" the exact conditions in any given chart and would be able to say definately if it would snow or not in an exact chart?
Sorry if that doesn't make sense. Hope it does.
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